Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 51.6% vs Roy 50.5% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 56.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 52.0%
Neutral zone
Kelly 50.3%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Kelly
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Kelly
Roy
Last 10: Kelly 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kelly
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
5
2
Kelly
Roy
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (686)
50.3% (1,010)
+1.0%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
53.3% (169)
+15.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (92)
51.1% (133)
-1.1%
On power play, Kelly has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Kelly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Kelly shoots left. Roy is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (872).
Home / Away
Kelly
Roy
Home
52.3% (388)
52.4% (683)
Away
51.3% (421)
48.6% (646)
By Period
Kelly
Roy
P1
50.0%
48.3%
P2
51.7%
49.5%
P3
53.0%
53.9%
OT
61.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
51.8%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2012 | 3 | 07:02 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 24, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 18:17 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 18:11 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 13:08 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 12:46 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 17:21 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |