Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Roy shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 49.0% vs Roy 47.5% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 77.4%
Defensive zone
Kelly 82.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 51.2%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Kelly
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kelly
Roy
Last 5: Kelly 1-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
Kelly
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
Kelly
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (456)
43.0% (351)
+7.0%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
61.3% (106)
-21.3%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (118)
33.3% (9)
+11.6%
On power play, Roy has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Kelly is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (346).
Kelly shoots left. Roy is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Kelly
Roy
Home
51.4% (350)
52.3% (241)
Away
45.0% (229)
41.3% (225)
By Period
Kelly
Roy
P1
46.9%
51.6%
P2
53.6%
46.4%
P3
46.8%
43.1%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2014 | 2 | 16:08 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 6, 2014 | 1 | 09:31 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 1 | 18:20 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 21, 2013 | 1 | 05:34 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |