Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stafford shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Stafford 48.5% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stafford 66.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 80.0%
Neutral zone
Kelly 59.8%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Kelly
Stafford
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kelly
Stafford
Last 8: Kelly 5-3 Stafford
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stafford
0
2
Kelly
Stafford
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
5
1
Kelly
Stafford
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Stafford
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
50.1% (571)
+1.0%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
49.2% (189)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
34.2% (79)
+10.5%
On power play, Kelly has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stafford shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Stafford is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Kelly
Stafford
Home
52.6% (1,965)
50.4% (452)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
45.9% (388)
By Period
Kelly
Stafford
P1
49.2%
50.0%
P2
49.1%
47.5%
P3
51.9%
47.9%
OT
53.5%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.3%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Stafford
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2017 | 2 | 02:48 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 3 | 10:35 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | Drew Stafford |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2 | 16:31 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Drew Stafford |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 1 | 05:03 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 15, 2013 | 2 | 02:58 | Offensive | Drew Stafford |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |