Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.6% vs 49.4%). Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stafford shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 48.8% vs Stafford 49.6% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stafford 62.8%
Defensive zone
Kelly 63.6%
Neutral zone
Kelly 52.7%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Kelly
Stafford
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kelly
Stafford
Last 5: Kelly 3-2 Stafford
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stafford
0
1
Kelly
Stafford
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
1
Kelly
Stafford
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Stafford
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (433)
55.0% (100)
-5.3%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
46.6% (58)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (99)
25.0% (16)
+20.5%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stafford shoots right. Kelly is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (210).
Kelly shoots left. Stafford is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
Kelly
Stafford
Home
53.9% (297)
53.9% (102)
Away
42.1% (242)
43.1% (72)
By Period
Kelly
Stafford
P1
45.4%
50.0%
P2
46.1%
51.6%
P3
54.3%
47.2%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.5%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.6%
Stafford
40.0%▼
47.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2014 | 3 | 10:35 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | Drew Stafford |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2 | 16:31 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Drew Stafford |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 1 | 05:03 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |