Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Penner 43.3% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 70.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 93.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 81.7%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 81.9%
81.9%
18.1%
Kelly
Penner
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Kelly
Penner
Last 6: Kelly 5-1 Penner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Penner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Penner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Penner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Penner
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
40.7% (214)
+10.4%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
45.5% (112)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
36.7% (60)
+8.0%
On power play, Kelly has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Penner shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Penner is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (258).
Home / Away
Kelly
Penner
Home
52.6% (1,965)
44.4% (207)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
38.3% (183)
By Period
Kelly
Penner
P1
49.2%
36.1%
P2
49.1%
36.6%
P3
51.9%
53.6%
OT
53.5%
25.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
46.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Penner
34.0%▼
42.0%
41.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2013 | 2 | 01:13 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 19:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Dustin Penner |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 1 | 19:14 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 1 | 10:12 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 2 | 18:19 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |