Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Larkin 52.7% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 57.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 82.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 71.5%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Kelly
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Kelly
Larkin
Last 6: Kelly 1-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Kelly
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Kelly
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
51.7% (9,019)
-0.6%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
58.5% (2,125)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
50.2% (1,122)
-5.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Kelly
Larkin
Home
52.6% (1,965)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Kelly
Larkin
P1
49.2%
52.7%
P2
49.1%
53.1%
P3
51.9%
52.1%
OT
53.5%
58.4%
Final 5 min
50.3%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 19:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 15:14 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 02:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2 | 06:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2 | 06:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |