Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.5% vs 45.4%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 41.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 45.4% vs Larkin 46.2% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 54.5%
Defensive zone
Kelly 68.5%
Neutral zone
Kelly 64.2%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Kelly
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Kelly
Larkin
Last 6: Kelly 1-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Kelly
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Kelly
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (373)
45.5% (391)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
35.9% (128)
50.0% (12)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Kelly shoots left. Larkin is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Home / Away
Kelly
Larkin
Home
47.5% (259)
47.0% (181)
Away
41.3% (242)
44.2% (251)
By Period
Kelly
Larkin
P1
46.7%
42.7%
P2
42.9%
52.4%
P3
43.4%
41.8%
Final 5 min
42.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
44.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2017 | 3 | 19:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 15:14 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 02:28 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2 | 06:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2 | 06:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |