Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Spezza 54.7% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 24-20 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 53.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 79.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 66.4%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
Kelly
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
24
(44 meetings)
20
24
Kelly
Spezza
Last 10: Kelly 2-8 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
9
Kelly
Spezza
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
13
7
Kelly
Spezza
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
8
Kelly
Spezza
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
54.4% (7,990)
-3.3%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
56.8% (1,726)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
52.7% (643)
-8.0%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Kelly
Spezza
Home
52.6% (1,965)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Kelly
Spezza
P1
49.2%
55.7%
P2
49.1%
54.4%
P3
51.9%
54.1%
OT
53.5%
51.5%
Final 5 min
50.3%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2017 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 8, 2017 | 2 | 13:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 8, 2017 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 8, 2017 | 2 | 03:58 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 8, 2017 | 1 | 13:41 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 10, 2015 | 3 | 03:19 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 10, 2015 | 3 | 00:48 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 10, 2015 | 2 | 05:51 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 10, 2015 | 2 | 03:18 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 20, 2015 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 2 | 10:06 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 15, 2013 | 3 | 05:05 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 15, 2013 | 2 | 14:28 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 15, 2013 | 2 | 14:21 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 15, 2013 | 2 | 03:25 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 15, 2013 | 2 | 02:23 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 15, 2013 | 1 | 19:38 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |