Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 90.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 63.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 76.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 76.5%
23.5%
76.5%
Kelly
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
12
(28 meetings)
16
12
Kelly
Pavelski
Last 10: Kelly 6-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
8
Kelly
Pavelski
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
9
2
Kelly
Pavelski
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
5
2
Kelly
Pavelski
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
53.6% (8,791)
-2.5%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
58.2% (2,122)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
50.9% (1,138)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Kelly
Pavelski
Home
52.6% (1,965)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Kelly
Pavelski
P1
49.2%
53.5%
P2
49.1%
55.2%
P3
51.9%
53.9%
OT
53.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2016 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 3 | 07:50 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 2 | 19:51 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 2 | 19:40 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 2 | 03:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2016 | 1 | 11:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 7, 2016 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 7, 2016 | 1 | 08:46 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 15:51 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 10:42 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 07:32 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2 | 14:47 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 24, 2013 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 24, 2013 | 3 | 16:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 24, 2013 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 24, 2013 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 24, 2013 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 24, 2013 | 2 | 19:20 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |