Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.8% vs Pavelski 53.9% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 85.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 71.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 76.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 77.9%
22.1%
77.9%
Kelly
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Kelly
Pavelski
Last 5: Kelly 4-1 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (723)
53.4% (682)
-1.5%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
63.7% (168)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (166)
48.1% (160)
-1.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Kelly is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (311).
Kelly shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Home / Away
Kelly
Pavelski
Home
53.8% (442)
59.0% (527)
Away
48.1% (474)
49.3% (493)
By Period
Kelly
Pavelski
P1
50.2%
50.8%
P2
47.6%
58.9%
P3
54.5%
53.6%
OT
85.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
52.8%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2010 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 2, 2010 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2010 | 3 | 01:03 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 2, 2010 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 2, 2010 | 1 | 11:53 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |