Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.8% vs 51.8%). Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 51.6% vs Mitchell 51.2% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mitchell 50.1%
Defensive zone
Kelly 66.0%
Neutral zone
Kelly 54.3%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Kelly
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kelly
Mitchell
Last 5: Kelly 2-3 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
0
2
Kelly
Mitchell
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Mitchell
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (686)
51.4% (175)
-0.1%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
54.2% (24)
+15.0%
On power play, Kelly has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Kelly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Kelly shoots left. Mitchell is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (132).
Home / Away
Kelly
Mitchell
Home
52.3% (388)
55.0% (109)
Away
51.3% (421)
47.8% (90)
By Period
Kelly
Mitchell
P1
50.0%
56.1%
P2
51.7%
50.6%
P3
53.0%
48.1%
Final 5 min
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
51.8%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2012 | 3 | 10:05 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2012 | 2 | 01:40 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2012 | 1 | 15:38 | Neutral | John Mitchell |
| Feb 14, 2012 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 14, 2012 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | John Mitchell |