Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 51.6% vs Bailey 44.6% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 86.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 72.4%
Neutral zone
Kelly 84.2%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 82.0%
82.0%
18.0%
Kelly
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Kelly
Bailey
Last 8: Kelly 6-2 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
0
Kelly
Bailey
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Bailey
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
1
Kelly
Bailey
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (686)
44.2% (579)
+7.1%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
52.5% (40)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (92)
39.8% (108)
+10.2%
On power play, Kelly has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Kelly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Kelly shoots left. Bailey is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Kelly
Bailey
Home
52.3% (388)
45.9% (375)
Away
51.3% (421)
41.8% (361)
By Period
Kelly
Bailey
P1
50.0%
47.3%
P2
51.7%
40.4%
P3
53.0%
43.3%
OT
61.5%
63.6%
Final 5 min
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
51.8%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2011 | 3 | 19:34 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 3 | 13:09 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 3 | 10:02 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 2 | 02:23 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 19, 2011 | 2 | 02:16 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 7, 2011 | 3 | 17:12 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |