Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Komarov on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Komarov 47.6% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Komarov 58.3%
Defensive zone
Komarov 55.2%
Neutral zone
Komarov 57.0%
Result
Leo Komarov favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Kelly
Komarov
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Kelly
Komarov
Last 6: Kelly 1-5 Komarov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Komarov
1
3
Kelly
Komarov
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Komarov
0
2
Kelly
Komarov
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Komarov
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
48.6% (695)
+2.5%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
37.5% (16)
+23.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
45.6% (417)
-0.9%
On power play, Kelly has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Komarov shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Komarov is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (693).
Home / Away
Kelly
Komarov
Home
52.6% (1,965)
49.2% (537)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
45.7% (591)
By Period
Kelly
Komarov
P1
49.2%
47.6%
P2
49.1%
47.3%
P3
51.9%
47.5%
OT
53.5%
41.2%
Final 5 min
50.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Komarov
46.0%▲
42.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 06:59 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 03:43 | Offensive | Leo Komarov |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | Leo Komarov |
| Mar 7, 2013 | 2 | 05:26 | Offensive | Leo Komarov |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 2 | 10:07 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 2 | 03:47 | Defensive | Leo Komarov |