Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 50.9%). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Arcobello shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Arcobello 50.9% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arcobello 86.5%
Defensive zone
Arcobello 52.5%
Neutral zone
Arcobello 65.1%
Result
Mark Arcobello favored at 68.0%
32.0%
68.0%
Kelly
Arcobello
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Kelly
Arcobello
Last 6: Kelly 5-1 Arcobello
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Arcobello
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Arcobello
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Arcobello
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Arcobello
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
50.6% (1,408)
+0.5%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
60.8% (130)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
36.8% (57)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arcobello shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Arcobello is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,067).
Home / Away
Kelly
Arcobello
Home
52.6% (1,965)
53.2% (745)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
48.9% (850)
By Period
Kelly
Arcobello
P1
49.2%
53.2%
P2
49.1%
51.3%
P3
51.9%
48.4%
OT
53.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Arcobello
58.0%▲
56.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2015 | 3 | 08:27 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 3 | 04:21 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 18:56 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 01:51 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |