Scouting Report
Matt Stajan holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stajan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 41.5% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 45.4% vs Stajan 50.1% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 79.9%
Defensive zone
Kelly 74.6%
Neutral zone
Kelly 74.5%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Kelly
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Kelly
Stajan
Last 9: Kelly 2-7 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Stajan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
0
4
Kelly
Stajan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stajan
0
3
Kelly
Stajan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (373)
50.9% (627)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
35.9% (128)
47.6% (126)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, Stajan has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Kelly shoots left. Stajan is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (515).
Home / Away
Kelly
Stajan
Home
47.5% (259)
52.4% (401)
Away
41.3% (242)
47.7% (367)
By Period
Kelly
Stajan
P1
46.7%
56.3%
P2
42.9%
45.5%
P3
43.4%
48.9%
Final 5 min
42.2%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
44.5%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2017 | 1 | 03:51 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 3 | 02:45 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 1 | 16:23 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 1 | 08:30 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 1 | 05:32 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 1 | 05:24 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |