Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 49.9%). Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Zibanejad 49.9% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 70.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 54.7%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 56.8%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Kelly
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Kelly
Zibanejad
Last 10: Kelly 6-4 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
3
Kelly
Zibanejad
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
6
2
Kelly
Zibanejad
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
2
Kelly
Zibanejad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
50.9% (11,719)
+0.2%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
52.2% (1,849)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
41.5% (1,790)
+3.2%
On power play, Kelly has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (10,678).
Home / Away
Kelly
Zibanejad
Home
52.6% (1,965)
51.6% (7,566)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
48.3% (7,793)
By Period
Kelly
Zibanejad
P1
49.2%
50.4%
P2
49.1%
49.7%
P3
51.9%
49.8%
OT
53.5%
48.7%
Final 5 min
50.3%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2015 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 19, 2015 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 10, 2015 | 3 | 08:57 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 13, 2014 | OT | 01:03 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 12:12 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 3 | 12:20 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 2 | 16:38 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 1, 2014 | 2 | 11:14 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 28, 2013 | 2 | 09:04 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 11, 2013 | 2 | 00:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 11, 2013 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2013 | OT | 01:00 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 1 | 03:49 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |