Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Ribeiro shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 49.0% vs Ribeiro 44.0% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ribeiro 50.8%
Defensive zone
Kelly 93.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 75.5%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 87.6%
87.6%
12.4%
Kelly
Ribeiro
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Kelly
Ribeiro
Last 6: Kelly 6-0 Ribeiro
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
0
Kelly
Ribeiro
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Ribeiro
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Ribeiro
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (456)
43.1% (821)
+6.9%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
48.1% (77)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (118)
0.0% (5)
+44.9%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +44.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ribeiro shoots left. Kelly is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (346).
Kelly shoots left. Ribeiro is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Kelly
Ribeiro
Home
51.4% (350)
45.2% (504)
Away
45.0% (229)
40.9% (399)
By Period
Kelly
Ribeiro
P1
46.9%
42.7%
P2
53.6%
45.3%
P3
46.8%
43.0%
OT
0.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Ribeiro
34.0%▼
36.0%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2014 | 3 | 16:49 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 22, 2014 | 3 | 05:15 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 22, 2014 | 2 | 10:06 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 22, 2014 | 1 | 11:32 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 22, 2014 | 1 | 07:29 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 13, 2014 | 2 | 19:19 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |