Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 50.5%). Look for Richards on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Richards 50.5% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Richards leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Richards 57.6%
Defensive zone
Kelly 64.5%
Neutral zone
Kelly 56.3%
Result
Mike Richards favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Kelly
Richards
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Kelly
Richards
Last 10: Kelly 3-7 Richards
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richards
2
7
Kelly
Richards
9 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Richards
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
0
Kelly
Richards
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Richards
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
50.0% (3,722)
+1.1%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
54.6% (445)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
51.4% (502)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Richards has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Richards shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Richards is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,122).
Home / Away
Kelly
Richards
Home
52.6% (1,965)
50.8% (2,363)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
50.3% (2,336)
By Period
Kelly
Richards
P1
49.2%
49.6%
P2
49.1%
52.3%
P3
51.9%
49.3%
OT
53.5%
58.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Richards
58.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2014 | 2 | 04:02 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 1 | 08:03 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 13:18 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Jan 20, 2011 | 3 | 13:33 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 20, 2011 | 2 | 16:17 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 20, 2011 | 2 | 16:10 | Offensive | Mike Richards |
| Jan 20, 2011 | 2 | 10:20 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 20, 2011 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 20, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 20, 2011 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Mike Richards |
| Jan 20, 2011 | 1 | 11:40 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |