Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 49.4%). Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Santorelli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Santorelli 49.5% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Santorelli 61.8%
Defensive zone
Kelly 70.4%
Neutral zone
Kelly 53.3%
Result
Mike Santorelli favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Kelly
Santorelli
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Kelly
Santorelli
Last 10: Kelly 6-4 Santorelli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Kelly
Santorelli
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Santorelli
0
1
Kelly
Santorelli
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
1
Kelly
Santorelli
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Santorelli
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
48.4% (1,835)
+2.7%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
56.0% (298)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
48.5% (132)
-3.8%
On power play, Kelly has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Santorelli shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Santorelli is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,556).
Home / Away
Kelly
Santorelli
Home
52.6% (1,965)
50.4% (1,079)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
48.5% (1,199)
By Period
Kelly
Santorelli
P1
49.2%
51.0%
P2
49.1%
49.7%
P3
51.9%
47.6%
OT
53.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Santorelli
40.0%▼
46.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2014 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 3 | 02:13 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 16, 2012 | 1 | 13:17 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 18:23 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 05:56 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 1 | 18:14 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 1 | 01:07 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 2 | 03:37 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |