Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.9% vs 48.8%). Look for Bonino on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 49.0% vs Bonino 48.9% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 59.9%
Defensive zone
Kelly 66.3%
Neutral zone
Bonino 50.1%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Kelly
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Kelly
Bonino
Last 5: Kelly 0-5 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
3
Kelly
Bonino
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
2
Kelly
Bonino
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (456)
49.6% (837)
+0.4%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
50.7% (223)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (118)
41.0% (134)
+3.9%
On power play, Bonino has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Kelly is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (346).
Kelly shoots left. Bonino is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (735).
Home / Away
Kelly
Bonino
Home
51.4% (350)
50.7% (564)
Away
45.0% (229)
47.1% (630)
By Period
Kelly
Bonino
P1
46.9%
44.9%
P2
53.6%
50.1%
P3
46.8%
50.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2013 | 3 | 18:08 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 1 | 04:44 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |