Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 60.5%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 70.5%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 66.4%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Kelly
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
12
(25 meetings)
13
12
Kelly
Gaustad
Last 10: Kelly 4-6 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
4
8
Kelly
Gaustad
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
1
Kelly
Gaustad
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
5
3
Kelly
Gaustad
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
58.2% (4,334)
-7.1%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
65.4% (188)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
54.8% (1,290)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Home / Away
Kelly
Gaustad
Home
52.6% (1,965)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Kelly
Gaustad
P1
49.2%
58.2%
P2
49.1%
56.4%
P3
51.9%
58.3%
OT
53.5%
66.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2012 | 2 | 17:36 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 24, 2012 | 1 | 00:53 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 2 | 18:36 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 3 | 07:28 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 3 | 07:11 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 3 | 10:09 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 2 | 02:43 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 1 | 05:58 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 1 | 02:54 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 25, 2011 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 3 | 13:20 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 3 | 09:42 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 1 | 13:17 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |