Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 15 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Johansen 53.3% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 82.0%
Defensive zone
Kelly 53.1%
Neutral zone
Johansen 60.3%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Kelly
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
11
(24 meetings)
13
11
Kelly
Johansen
Last 10: Kelly 3-7 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
2
Kelly
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
9
6
Kelly
Johansen
15 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Kelly
Johansen
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
53.1% (11,017)
-2.0%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
56.2% (2,163)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
50.5% (978)
-5.8%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Johansen is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,788).
Home / Away
Kelly
Johansen
Home
52.6% (1,965)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Kelly
Johansen
P1
49.2%
53.2%
P2
49.1%
53.9%
P3
51.9%
52.8%
OT
53.5%
58.2%
Final 5 min
50.3%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 12:34 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 1 | 08:41 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 3 | 07:43 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 2 | 08:47 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 2 | 00:27 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 1 | 12:48 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 27, 2014 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 21, 2014 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 21, 2014 | 2 | 07:21 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 21, 2014 | 2 | 03:50 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 1 | 14:11 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 3 | 18:16 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 3 | 12:36 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 1 | 18:10 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 1 | 05:15 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |