Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Kelly wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 49.0% vs Johansen 52.6% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 87.3%
Defensive zone
Johansen 56.8%
Neutral zone
Johansen 74.5%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Kelly
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Kelly
Johansen
Last 10: Kelly 7-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Kelly
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
5
2
Kelly
Johansen
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (456)
52.5% (1,002)
-2.5%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
56.1% (198)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (118)
49.5% (111)
-4.6%
On power play, Johansen has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Kelly is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (233).
Kelly shoots left. Johansen is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (864).
Home / Away
Kelly
Johansen
Home
51.4% (350)
54.7% (632)
Away
45.0% (229)
51.0% (679)
By Period
Kelly
Johansen
P1
46.9%
54.3%
P2
53.6%
53.5%
P3
46.8%
50.9%
OT
0.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2013 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 1 | 14:11 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 3 | 18:16 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 3 | 12:36 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 1 | 18:10 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 14, 2013 | 1 | 05:15 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 3 | 05:18 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2013 | 2 | 13:08 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |