Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +22.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Kelly wins 61.7% vs right-shot opponents — Gionta shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 56.2% vs Gionta 38.2% (+22.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 69.5%
Defensive zone
Kelly 91.1%
Neutral zone
Kelly 87.6%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 88.2%
88.2%
11.8%
Kelly
Gionta
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Kelly
Gionta
Last 6: Kelly 5-1 Gionta
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Gionta
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
1
Kelly
Gionta
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Gionta
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (298)
35.5% (335)
+23.2%
Power Play
100.0% (8)
66.7% (3)
+33.3%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (67)
30.8% (52)
+18.5%
On power play, Kelly has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gionta shoots right. Kelly is 61.7% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Kelly shoots left. Gionta is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (275).
Home / Away
Kelly
Gionta
Home
60.0% (200)
34.9% (186)
Away
55.5% (173)
35.3% (204)
By Period
Kelly
Gionta
P1
55.9%
32.5%
P2
58.4%
29.7%
P3
60.9%
42.5%
OT
37.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.0%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
57.9%
Gionta
50.0%▲
48.0%
35.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 2 | 18:12 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2013 | 3 | 18:04 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2013 | 1 | 00:10 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |