Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Downie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Downie 47.5% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Downie 73.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 77.9%
Neutral zone
Kelly 52.7%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Kelly
Downie
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Kelly
Downie
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Downie
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Downie
0
1
Kelly
Downie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Downie
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
48.1% (131)
+3.0%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
43.7% (71)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
0.0% (1)
+44.7%
On penalty kill, Kelly has a +44.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Downie shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Downie is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (146).
Home / Away
Kelly
Downie
Home
52.6% (1,965)
49.5% (93)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
43.6% (110)
By Period
Kelly
Downie
P1
49.2%
41.8%
P2
49.1%
38.6%
P3
51.9%
60.0%
OT
53.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Downie
48.0%▲
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2012 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Steve Downie |
| Jan 8, 2011 | 2 | 00:52 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |