Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 22 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Bozak 53.4% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Bozak leads 36-29 in 65 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 50.8%
Defensive zone
Kelly 77.6%
Neutral zone
Kelly 67.1%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Kelly
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
36
(65 meetings)
29
36
Kelly
Bozak
Last 10: Kelly 3-7 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
10
16
Kelly
Bozak
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
13
4
Kelly
Bozak
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
6
16
Kelly
Bozak
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
53.7% (9,596)
-2.6%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
55.2% (1,990)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
48.0% (1,094)
-3.3%
On power play, Kelly has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Bozak is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,417).
Home / Away
Kelly
Bozak
Home
52.6% (1,965)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Kelly
Bozak
P1
49.2%
53.2%
P2
49.1%
52.8%
P3
51.9%
54.5%
OT
53.5%
52.9%
Final 5 min
50.3%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2017 | 2 | 06:23 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Jan 21, 2017 | 1 | 02:18 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 14, 2017 | 1 | 05:02 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2 | 19:57 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 1 | 09:25 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Apr 4, 2015 | 1 | 14:54 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Dec 31, 2014 | 3 | 02:02 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 12, 2014 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 12, 2014 | 3 | 01:31 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 12, 2014 | 3 | 01:23 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 12, 2014 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 12, 2014 | 2 | 08:32 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 12, 2014 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 12, 2014 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Nov 12, 2014 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 00:22 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 2 | 06:18 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 2 | 06:03 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 3 | 13:09 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 3, 2014 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |