Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Kelly wins 61.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 56.2% vs Bozak 52.4% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 55.0%
Defensive zone
Kelly 67.8%
Neutral zone
Kelly 55.0%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Kelly
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Kelly
Bozak
Last 7: Kelly 5-2 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Kelly
Bozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
5
0
Kelly
Bozak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Kelly
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (298)
52.8% (697)
+5.9%
Power Play
100.0% (8)
50.9% (171)
+49.1%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (67)
53.3% (195)
-4.0%
On power play, Kelly has a +49.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Kelly is 61.7% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Kelly shoots left. Bozak is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (670).
Home / Away
Kelly
Bozak
Home
60.0% (200)
52.1% (530)
Away
55.5% (173)
53.1% (533)
By Period
Kelly
Bozak
P1
55.9%
54.1%
P2
58.4%
50.6%
P3
60.9%
53.4%
OT
37.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
60.0%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
57.9%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2013 | 3 | 18:34 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 7, 2013 | 2 | 18:12 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 7, 2013 | 2 | 11:31 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 7, 2013 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 7, 2013 | 1 | 07:56 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 2, 2013 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |