Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Seguin 53.6% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 72.0%
Defensive zone
Seguin 50.1%
Neutral zone
Seguin 58.8%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Kelly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Kelly
Seguin
Last 9: Kelly 5-4 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
3
Kelly
Seguin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
1
Kelly
Seguin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
53.7% (8,071)
-2.6%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
55.9% (810)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
49.3% (762)
-4.6%
On power play, Kelly has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Seguin is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (6,798).
Home / Away
Kelly
Seguin
Home
52.6% (1,965)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Kelly
Seguin
P1
49.2%
52.8%
P2
49.1%
53.3%
P3
51.9%
54.7%
OT
53.5%
54.7%
Final 5 min
50.3%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2013 | 1 | 12:39 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 11, 2011 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 11, 2011 | 2 | 05:54 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 09:34 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 3 | 06:54 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 2 | 08:26 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |