Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.8% vs Seguin 49.6% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 62.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 74.8%
Neutral zone
Kelly 61.1%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 59.2%
59.2%
40.8%
Kelly
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kelly
Seguin
Last 8: Kelly 5-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
Kelly
Seguin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
1
Kelly
Seguin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (723)
48.9% (274)
+3.0%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
53.8% (26)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (166)
50.0% (2)
-3.6%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Kelly is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (311).
Kelly shoots left. Seguin is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (231).
Home / Away
Kelly
Seguin
Home
53.8% (442)
53.5% (129)
Away
48.1% (474)
46.6% (174)
By Period
Kelly
Seguin
P1
50.2%
52.3%
P2
47.6%
48.1%
P3
54.5%
47.8%
OT
85.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.9%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2011 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 11, 2011 | 2 | 05:54 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 09:34 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 13, 2010 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 3 | 06:54 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 2 | 08:26 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |