Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.1% vs 50.6%). Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Smith 50.6% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 51.3%
Defensive zone
Kelly 54.7%
Neutral zone
Kelly 53.1%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Kelly
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
12
(21 meetings)
9
12
Kelly
Smith
Last 10: Kelly 4-6 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Smith
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
4
8
Kelly
Smith
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
3
Kelly
Smith
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
51.6% (5,265)
-0.5%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
51.2% (342)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
45.3% (985)
-0.6%
On power play, Kelly has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Kelly shoots left. Smith is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (4,205).
Home / Away
Kelly
Smith
Home
52.6% (1,965)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Kelly
Smith
P1
49.2%
49.9%
P2
49.1%
50.0%
P3
51.9%
51.9%
OT
53.5%
51.6%
Final 5 min
50.3%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 13:08 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 13, 2014 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 3 | 19:17 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 3 | 08:57 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 11, 2013 | 1 | 13:47 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Mar 11, 2013 | 1 | 06:42 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 1 | 06:48 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Apr 5, 2012 | 3 | 09:02 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 13:35 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 07:09 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 13:28 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 14, 2011 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 14, 2011 | 2 | 19:40 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 07:55 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 18, 2011 | 3 | 04:13 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 18, 2011 | 2 | 01:35 | Defensive | Zack Smith |