Scouting Report
Zack Smith holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.8% vs Smith 53.1% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 55.5%
Defensive zone
Kelly 57.3%
Neutral zone
Kelly 57.0%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Kelly
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Kelly
Smith
Last 5: Kelly 2-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
3
Kelly
Smith
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (723)
58.1% (322)
-6.2%
Power Play
54.2% (24)
36.8% (19)
+17.4%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (166)
32.6% (46)
+13.8%
On power play, Kelly has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Kelly is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (605).
Kelly shoots left. Smith is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (234).
Home / Away
Kelly
Smith
Home
53.8% (442)
58.8% (204)
Away
48.1% (474)
48.4% (184)
By Period
Kelly
Smith
P1
50.2%
52.9%
P2
47.6%
56.3%
P3
54.5%
51.9%
OT
85.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.9%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 07:55 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 18, 2011 | 3 | 04:13 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 18, 2011 | 2 | 01:35 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 18, 2011 | 1 | 01:52 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |