Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 51.6% vs Smith 49.0% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 52.2%
Defensive zone
Smith 66.2%
Neutral zone
Smith 56.5%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Kelly
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kelly
Smith
Last 8: Kelly 3-5 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Smith
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
3
Kelly
Smith
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Smith
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (686)
48.0% (761)
+3.3%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
70.4% (27)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (92)
49.5% (196)
+0.5%
On even strength, Kelly has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Kelly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (561).
Kelly shoots left. Smith is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Kelly
Smith
Home
52.3% (388)
49.9% (523)
Away
51.3% (421)
47.8% (467)
By Period
Kelly
Smith
P1
50.0%
47.5%
P2
51.7%
50.4%
P3
53.0%
48.4%
OT
61.5%
53.8%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
51.8%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2012 | 3 | 09:02 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 25, 2012 | 2 | 13:35 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 3 | 07:09 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 13:28 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 31, 2012 | 2 | 04:31 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 14, 2011 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 14, 2011 | 2 | 19:40 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |