Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.5% vs 54.4%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Thorburn wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thorburn 53.0% vs Tavares 54.4% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Thorburn leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 63.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 51.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 64.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Thorburn
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Thorburn
Tavares
Last 10: Thorburn 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
4
Thorburn
Tavares
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thorburn
3
1
Thorburn
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thorburn
1
0
Thorburn
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thorburn
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (504)
54.0% (16,108)
+1.8%
Power Play
44.4% (18)
56.5% (4,283)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (91)
50.6% (620)
-7.7%
On power play, Tavares has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Thorburn is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (436).
Thorburn shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Home / Away
Thorburn
Tavares
Home
55.7% (305)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
51.3% (308)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Thorburn
Tavares
P1
54.9%
55.0%
P2
55.1%
54.1%
P3
51.1%
54.1%
OT
20.0%
55.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thorburn
52.0%▼
57.0%
53.5%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2013 | 2 | 01:17 | Defensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Jan 27, 2013 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 14, 2012 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 2 | 13:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2011 | 3 | 04:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 3, 2011 | 2 | 16:53 | Neutral | Chris Thorburn |
| Nov 3, 2011 | 1 | 07:57 | Offensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Nov 3, 2011 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 3 | 00:48 | Defensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Chris Thorburn |