Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thorburn on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thorburn wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thorburn 49.9% vs Bozak 54.3% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bozak 68.8%
Defensive zone
Bozak 54.4%
Neutral zone
Bozak 60.9%
Result
Tyler Bozak favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
Thorburn
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Thorburn
Bozak
Last 5: Thorburn 3-2 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
1
Thorburn
Bozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thorburn
2
1
Thorburn
Bozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thorburn
1
0
Thorburn
Bozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thorburn
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (171)
54.2% (962)
-1.0%
Power Play
44.4% (9)
57.9% (266)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (71)
52.1% (188)
-9.8%
On power play, Bozak has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Thorburn is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (82).
Thorburn shoots right. Bozak is 59.2% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Home / Away
Thorburn
Bozak
Home
52.1% (119)
58.6% (732)
Away
47.7% (132)
50.5% (709)
By Period
Thorburn
Bozak
P1
45.3%
54.1%
P2
53.8%
55.0%
P3
51.3%
54.1%
OT
20.0%
65.2%
Final 5 min
40.7%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thorburn
52.0%▼
57.0%
49.8%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2011 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Chris Thorburn |
| Feb 27, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Thorburn |
| Dec 20, 2010 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |