Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Wagner wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 47.3% vs Thompson 54.5% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wagner 72.8%
Defensive zone
Wagner 77.9%
Neutral zone
Wagner 75.2%
Result
Chris Wagner favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Wagner
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Wagner
Thompson
Last 6: Wagner 1-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Wagner
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Wagner
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Wagner
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (190)
55.8% (654)
-5.8%
Power Play
20.0% (5)
50.0% (10)
-30.0%
Penalty Kill
35.2% (54)
51.2% (123)
-16.0%
On power play, Thompson has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Wagner is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Wagner shoots right. Thompson is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Wagner
Thompson
Home
50.0% (134)
57.0% (421)
Away
41.7% (115)
52.7% (366)
By Period
Wagner
Thompson
P1
48.8%
57.9%
P2
42.0%
52.3%
P3
48.0%
55.2%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
46.2%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2020 | 3 | 08:41 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 1 | 14:22 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Mar 10, 2020 | 1 | 02:12 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 1, 2019 | 3 | 14:23 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 26, 2019 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 05:28 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |