Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Wagner wins 39.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wagner 49.1% vs Johansen 55.1% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 88.3%
Defensive zone
Wagner 64.1%
Neutral zone
Johansen 61.3%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Wagner
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Wagner
Johansen
Last 7: Wagner 4-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
2
Wagner
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wagner
2
1
Wagner
Johansen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wagner
1
0
Wagner
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wagner
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (332)
55.9% (1,157)
-4.4%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
56.5% (237)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (129)
43.3% (67)
-1.4%
On even strength, Johansen has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Wagner is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Wagner shoots right. Johansen is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (457).
Home / Away
Wagner
Johansen
Home
49.8% (233)
55.8% (733)
Away
48.1% (237)
55.1% (728)
By Period
Wagner
Johansen
P1
45.9%
53.5%
P2
47.8%
55.9%
P3
52.7%
57.2%
OT
42.9%
47.4%
Final 5 min
50.4%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wagner
40.0%▼
49.5%
48.9%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2 | 08:00 | Neutral | Chris Wagner |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2 | 03:37 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 3, 2017 | 3 | 04:20 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 3, 2017 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Chris Wagner |
| Nov 3, 2017 | 1 | 03:55 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 3, 2017 | 1 | 00:17 | Defensive | Chris Wagner |