Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hodgson wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hodgson 47.1% vs Kesler 52.5% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hodgson 78.4%
Defensive zone
Hodgson 75.2%
Neutral zone
Hodgson 74.4%
Result
Cody Hodgson favored at 76.2%
76.2%
23.8%
Hodgson
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Hodgson
Kesler
Last 8: Hodgson 1-7 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
3
Hodgson
Kesler
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
3
Hodgson
Kesler
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hodgson
Kesler
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hodgson
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (713)
53.8% (1,005)
-7.4%
Power Play
47.6% (210)
56.6% (205)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (46)
42.3% (196)
+5.5%
On power play, Kesler has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Hodgson is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (346).
Hodgson shoots right. Kesler is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (424).
Home / Away
Hodgson
Kesler
Home
48.8% (490)
54.1% (719)
Away
44.7% (479)
51.1% (687)
By Period
Hodgson
Kesler
P1
46.6%
53.1%
P2
51.2%
54.5%
P3
42.4%
50.3%
OT
44.4%
47.4%
Final 5 min
44.9%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hodgson
48.0%▲
44.5%
46.7%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2014 | 3 | 15:16 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Mar 23, 2014 | 3 | 04:30 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 23, 2014 | 2 | 15:39 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 23, 2014 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 23, 2014 | 2 | 09:10 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 23, 2014 | 2 | 02:00 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 23, 2014 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |