Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.4% vs 47.2%). Look for Hodgson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hodgson wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hodgson 46.6% vs Connolly 47.3% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Connolly 53.9%
Defensive zone
Connolly 53.1%
Neutral zone
Hodgson 50.9%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Hodgson
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Hodgson
Connolly
Last 6: Hodgson 4-2 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hodgson
1
0
Hodgson
Connolly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
1
Hodgson
Connolly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hodgson
3
1
Hodgson
Connolly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hodgson
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,353)
47.4% (1,307)
-1.2%
Power Play
48.9% (493)
50.2% (251)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (157)
41.9% (186)
+0.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Hodgson is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,049).
Hodgson shoots right. Connolly is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (576).
Home / Away
Hodgson
Connolly
Home
48.8% (1,431)
48.5% (870)
Away
44.3% (1,577)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Hodgson
Connolly
P1
47.9%
47.4%
P2
48.9%
47.7%
P3
42.3%
47.0%
OT
44.1%
37.8%
Final 5 min
45.1%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hodgson
48.0%▲
44.5%
46.4%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 04:09 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 2 | 07:02 | Offensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 2 | 01:25 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 08:13 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 01:34 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 1 | 09:17 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |