Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hodgson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hodgson wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hodgson 46.8% vs Connolly 48.9% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hodgson 52.5%
Defensive zone
Connolly 74.9%
Neutral zone
Connolly 52.9%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Hodgson
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Hodgson
Connolly
Last 6: Hodgson 4-2 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hodgson
1
0
Hodgson
Connolly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
0
1
Hodgson
Connolly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hodgson
3
1
Hodgson
Connolly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hodgson
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (563)
47.8% (605)
-1.4%
Power Play
47.1% (121)
51.2% (86)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
38.1% (21)
55.1% (89)
-17.0%
On penalty kill, Connolly has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Hodgson is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Hodgson shoots right. Connolly is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Hodgson
Connolly
Home
50.3% (286)
51.1% (358)
Away
43.6% (424)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Hodgson
Connolly
P1
48.2%
48.7%
P2
49.2%
48.1%
P3
41.9%
50.4%
OT
22.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.7%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hodgson
48.0%▲
44.5%
46.3%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 04:09 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 2 | 07:02 | Offensive | Cody Hodgson |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 2 | 01:25 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 08:13 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 01:34 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 1 | 09:17 | Neutral | Cody Hodgson |