Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cave 49.3% vs MacKenzie 53.0% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cave 71.6%
Defensive zone
Cave 66.7%
Neutral zone
Cave 71.9%
Result
Colby Cave favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Cave
MacKenzie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Cave
MacKenzie
Last 7: Cave 2-5 MacKenzie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
0
2
Cave
MacKenzie
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cave
MacKenzie
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
2
Cave
MacKenzie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cave
MacKenzie
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (445)
54.9% (3,660)
-4.8%
Power Play
41.7% (12)
55.9% (102)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (43)
46.7% (1,158)
-4.8%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKenzie shoots left. Cave is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (346).
Cave shoots left. MacKenzie is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,097).
Home / Away
Cave
MacKenzie
Home
46.8% (233)
54.0% (2,527)
Away
51.3% (267)
52.1% (2,398)
By Period
Cave
MacKenzie
P1
46.3%
51.9%
P2
48.3%
53.0%
P3
53.7%
54.0%
OT
50.0%
65.7%
Final 5 min
44.7%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cave
42.0%▼
50.5%
49.2%
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2018 | 2 | 16:44 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 2 | 11:26 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 2 | 08:07 | Neutral | Colby Cave |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 1 | 17:16 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 1 | 08:36 | Defensive | Colby Cave |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 1 | 08:17 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |