Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Fraser on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Backes 50.7% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Fraser leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 85.9%
Defensive zone
Backes 78.8%
Neutral zone
Backes 76.9%
Result
David Backes favored at 80.3%
19.7%
80.3%
Fraser
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Fraser
Backes
Last 10: Fraser 8-2 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
2
1
Fraser
Backes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
5
2
Fraser
Backes
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fraser
Backes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
51.1% (5,772)
-3.1%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
50.8% (1,082)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
47.4% (930)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. Fraser is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (383).
Fraser shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Home / Away
Fraser
Backes
Home
48.6% (661)
50.6% (3,936)
Away
44.0% (602)
50.7% (3,895)
By Period
Fraser
Backes
P1
46.7%
50.1%
P2
46.4%
51.5%
P3
46.2%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
46.3%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2014 | 3 | 03:00 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 2 | 08:08 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 22, 2012 | 2 | 03:19 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 22, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 18:28 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 15:40 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 08:37 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 3 | 01:02 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 4, 2011 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 4, 2010 | 1 | 10:58 | Defensive | David Backes |