Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fraser wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — MacKenzie shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 45.4% vs MacKenzie 51.7% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 64.5%
Defensive zone
Fraser 75.3%
Neutral zone
Fraser 56.0%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Fraser
MacKenzie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Fraser
MacKenzie
Last 5: Fraser 2-3 MacKenzie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
0
1
Fraser
MacKenzie
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
MacKenzie
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
2
Fraser
MacKenzie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
MacKenzie
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (382)
51.8% (384)
-4.2%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
50.0% (24)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (152)
52.5% (61)
-17.6%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKenzie shoots left. Fraser is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (374).
Fraser shoots left. MacKenzie is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Fraser
MacKenzie
Home
47.1% (293)
51.7% (232)
Away
41.7% (259)
52.3% (241)
By Period
Fraser
MacKenzie
P1
46.3%
47.9%
P2
43.1%
51.8%
P3
44.7%
55.4%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.6%
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2011 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 3 | 05:37 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 2 | 15:42 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 2 | 11:43 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 1 | 15:56 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |