Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.4% vs 46.5%). Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Stepan 46.6% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 59.7%
Defensive zone
Fraser 56.6%
Neutral zone
Fraser 56.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Fraser
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Fraser
Stepan
Last 6: Fraser 3-3 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Fraser
Stepan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
2
0
Fraser
Stepan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Fraser
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
46.5% (10,204)
+1.5%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
48.8% (1,593)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
44.2% (1,368)
-8.4%
On power play, Fraser has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Fraser is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (383).
Fraser shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
Fraser
Stepan
Home
48.6% (661)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
44.0% (602)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Fraser
Stepan
P1
46.7%
47.5%
P2
46.4%
45.6%
P3
46.2%
46.8%
OT
33.3%
40.7%
Final 5 min
46.3%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2013 | 1 | 09:06 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Nov 14, 2010 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Nov 14, 2010 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 14, 2010 | 2 | 15:53 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 14, 2010 | 2 | 07:37 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 14, 2010 | 1 | 13:04 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |