Scouting Report
Colin Fraser holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 45.4% vs Stepan 39.9% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 83.7%
Defensive zone
Fraser 74.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 55.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Fraser
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Fraser
Stepan
Last 5: Fraser 2-3 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Fraser
Stepan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Stepan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
1
Fraser
Stepan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (382)
38.6% (630)
+9.0%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
45.3% (64)
+17.2%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (152)
22.7% (22)
+12.2%
On power play, Fraser has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Fraser is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (178).
Fraser shoots left. Stepan is 38.4% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
Fraser
Stepan
Home
47.1% (293)
39.0% (364)
Away
41.7% (259)
38.0% (355)
By Period
Fraser
Stepan
P1
46.3%
39.4%
P2
43.1%
40.6%
P3
44.7%
36.4%
OT
33.3%
12.5%
Final 5 min
43.9%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.6%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
38.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2010 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Nov 14, 2010 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 14, 2010 | 2 | 15:53 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 14, 2010 | 2 | 07:37 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 14, 2010 | 1 | 13:04 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |