Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Arnott 50.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Arnott leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Arnott 57.2%
Defensive zone
Fraser 78.2%
Neutral zone
Fraser 65.9%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Fraser
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Fraser
Arnott
Last 10: Fraser 3-7 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
5
Fraser
Arnott
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
3
2
Fraser
Arnott
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arnott
0
1
Fraser
Arnott
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
49.7% (1,444)
-1.7%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
53.8% (182)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
40.0% (15)
-4.2%
On power play, Fraser has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. Fraser is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (383).
Fraser shoots left. Arnott is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,175).
Home / Away
Fraser
Arnott
Home
48.6% (661)
52.1% (891)
Away
44.0% (602)
48.2% (772)
By Period
Fraser
Arnott
P1
46.7%
46.1%
P2
46.4%
53.6%
P3
46.2%
50.1%
OT
33.3%
71.4%
Final 5 min
46.3%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2012 | 3 | 01:53 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Mar 22, 2012 | 3 | 01:46 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 3 | 04:59 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 2 | 16:45 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 2 | 08:53 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | OT | 02:41 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 10:23 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |