Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 45.4% vs Arnott 50.2% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arnott 62.6%
Defensive zone
Fraser 82.5%
Neutral zone
Fraser 68.7%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Fraser
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Fraser
Arnott
Last 7: Fraser 2-5 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
0
5
Fraser
Arnott
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
2
0
Fraser
Arnott
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (382)
49.0% (777)
-1.4%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
58.1% (93)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (152)
30.0% (10)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Fraser has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. Fraser is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (178).
Fraser shoots left. Arnott is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Fraser
Arnott
Home
47.1% (293)
51.1% (460)
Away
41.7% (259)
49.3% (434)
By Period
Fraser
Arnott
P1
46.3%
45.3%
P2
43.1%
54.2%
P3
44.7%
49.8%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.9%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.6%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2011 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 9, 2011 | 2 | 08:53 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | OT | 02:41 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 10:23 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |