Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Arnott on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 47.9% vs Arnott 50.3% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arnott 69.7%
Defensive zone
Fraser 67.5%
Neutral zone
Fraser 51.3%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Fraser
Arnott
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Fraser
Arnott
Last 5: Fraser 2-3 Arnott
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Arnott
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
2
Fraser
Arnott
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Arnott
0
1
Fraser
Arnott
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Arnott
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (332)
50.5% (667)
-1.7%
Power Play
30.0% (10)
49.4% (89)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
60.0% (5)
-21.5%
On penalty kill, Arnott has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arnott shoots right. Fraser is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (116).
Fraser shoots left. Arnott is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (548).
Home / Away
Fraser
Arnott
Home
49.7% (189)
53.1% (431)
Away
44.8% (181)
46.7% (338)
By Period
Fraser
Arnott
P1
44.6%
46.9%
P2
48.1%
52.9%
P3
49.1%
50.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.3%
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2012 | 3 | 01:53 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Mar 22, 2012 | 3 | 01:46 | Defensive | Jason Arnott |
| Feb 3, 2012 | 3 | 04:59 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Nov 22, 2011 | 2 | 16:45 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |