Scouting Report
Matt Cullen holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Fraser on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fraser wins 42.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cullen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 45.4% vs Cullen 55.5% (-11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cullen 93.5%
Defensive zone
Cullen 75.6%
Neutral zone
Cullen 89.6%
Result
Matt Cullen favored at 87.6%
12.4%
87.6%
Fraser
Cullen
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Fraser
Cullen
Last 5: Fraser 4-1 Cullen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Cullen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Cullen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fraser
2
1
Fraser
Cullen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Cullen
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (382)
55.1% (652)
-7.5%
Power Play
62.5% (16)
54.7% (75)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (152)
65.7% (99)
-30.8%
On penalty kill, Cullen has a +30.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cullen shoots left. Fraser is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (374).
Fraser shoots left. Cullen is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Home / Away
Fraser
Cullen
Home
47.1% (293)
55.3% (421)
Away
41.7% (259)
56.9% (422)
By Period
Fraser
Cullen
P1
46.3%
54.4%
P2
43.1%
57.3%
P3
44.7%
56.6%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
43.9%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.6%
Cullen
58.0%▲
53.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2011 | 3 | 01:47 | Neutral | Matt Cullen |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 2 | 12:43 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 1 | 03:25 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 1 | 04:05 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |