Scouting Report
Matt Stajan holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Fraser on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 47.9% vs Stajan 51.6% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stajan 59.9%
Defensive zone
Stajan 79.5%
Neutral zone
Stajan 73.7%
Result
Matt Stajan favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Fraser
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Fraser
Stajan
Last 5: Fraser 4-1 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
3
1
Fraser
Stajan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Stajan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (332)
53.0% (509)
-4.2%
Power Play
30.0% (10)
41.4% (29)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
48.0% (98)
-9.5%
On power play, Stajan has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Fraser is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Fraser shoots left. Stajan is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Fraser
Stajan
Home
49.7% (189)
53.8% (353)
Away
44.8% (181)
49.3% (286)
By Period
Fraser
Stajan
P1
44.6%
52.0%
P2
48.1%
52.0%
P3
49.1%
51.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.3%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2012 | 2 | 11:46 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 2 | 02:03 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 08:03 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 18, 2012 | 1 | 03:02 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 19, 2012 | 1 | 02:16 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |