Scouting Report
Colin Fraser holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Bonino on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 50.2% vs Bonino 48.9% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 53.5%
Defensive zone
Bonino 58.7%
Neutral zone
Bonino 54.8%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Fraser
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Fraser
Bonino
Last 6: Fraser 2-4 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fraser
1
0
Fraser
Bonino
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Fraser
Bonino
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
1
3
Fraser
Bonino
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (162)
49.6% (837)
-0.2%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
50.7% (223)
+32.6%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
41.0% (134)
-1.0%
On power play, Fraser has a +32.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Fraser is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (129).
Fraser shoots left. Bonino is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (735).
Home / Away
Fraser
Bonino
Home
50.0% (84)
50.7% (564)
Away
50.6% (89)
47.1% (630)
By Period
Fraser
Bonino
P1
53.9%
44.9%
P2
51.6%
50.1%
P3
40.0%
50.9%
Final 5 min
43.2%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
50.3%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2014 | 2 | 12:20 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 1 | 04:37 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 1 | 01:36 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 2 | 12:25 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 3, 2013 | 1 | 01:41 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |